Non-Cointegration and Econometric Evaluation of Models of Regional Shift and Share

This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors for 20 states finds very little evidence for cointegration. Forecasting models with and without imposing cointegration are than constructed and used to forecast out of sample. The simplest, non-cointegrating models are the best.

Prevalence of Inherited Hemoglobin Disorders and Relationships with Anemia and Micronutrient Status among Children in Yaoundé and Douala, Cameroon.

Information on the etiology of anemia is necessary to design effective anemia control programs. Our objective was to measure the prevalence of inherited hemoglobin disorders (IHD) in a representative sample of children in urban Cameroon, and examine the relationships between IHD and anemia. In a cluster survey of children 12-59 months of age (n = 291) in Yaoundé and Douala, we assessed hemoglobin (Hb), malaria infection, and plasma indicators of inflammation and micronutrient status. Hb S was detected by HPLC, and α⁺thalassemia (3.7 kb deletions) by PCR. Anemia (Hb < 110 g/L), inflammation, and malaria were present in 45%, 46%, and 8% of children. A total of 13.7% of children had HbAS, 1.6% had HbSS, and 30.6% and 3.1% had heterozygous and homozygous α⁺thalassemia. The prevalence of anemia was greater among HbAS compared to HbAA children (60.3 vs. 42.0%, p = 0.038), although mean Hb concentrations did not differ, p = 0.38). Hb and anemia prevalence did not differ among children with or without single gene deletion α⁺thalassemia. In multi-variable models, anemia was independently predicted by HbAS, HbSS, malaria, iron deficiency (ID; inflammation-adjusted ferritin <12 µg/L), higher C-reactive protein, lower plasma folate, and younger age. Elevated soluble transferrin receptor concentration (>8.3 mg/L) was associated with younger age, malaria, greater mean reticulocyte counts, inflammation, HbSS genotype, and ID. IHD are prevalent but contribute modestly to anemia among children in urban Cameroon

Ecological and physiological studies of the effect of sulfate pulp mill wastes on oysters in the York River, Virginia

This study of the York River and issues impacting the oyster fishery provides historical information on the river\u27s physical and chemical conditions (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, currents, etc.) effluent observations, history and data of the oyster fishery, oyster condition, biological and pathological work and experimental studies. The project studies were responsible for the establishment of a fisheries laboratory in Yorktown, Va. p. 59 - Funds for the York River investigations were made available in 1935 by a special allotment from the Public Works Administration. Continuation of the project was made possible by regular allotments by the Bureau of Fisheries and appropriations from the Commonwealth of Virginia through its Commission of Fisheries. In October 1935 a laboratory was established at Yorktown, Va., where a satisfactory supply of sea water was available for physiological studies\u27 on oysters. A boat suitable for the field observations was supplied by the Virginia Commission of Fisheries. Studies of the chemical nature of the pulp-mill effluents were carried on from July 1938 to July 1940 at laboratories made available by the College of William and Mary

A Multivariate Analysis of United States and Global Real Estate Investment Trusts

Using daily data for the period February 2006 to July 2013 we examine the return and volatility linkages between the two main United States REIT sub-sectors and global linkages between the Americas, Europe and the Asia Pacific regions using the BEKK-GARCH and the DCC-GARCH models. We find that there is no evidence of any volatility spillovers between the US sub-sectors. By contrast, we find evidence of volatility spillovers between the Asia Pacific and the Americas, the Asia Pacific and Europe but no spillovers between the United States and Europe. Our results suggest that the REIT market is becoming increasingly globalized and that investors need to consider time varying volatility and correlations across different regions of the world when forming their optimal portfolio-allocations

Fractional derivatives of random walks: Time series with long-time memory

We review statistical properties of models generated by the application of a (positive and negative order) fractional derivative operator to a standard random walk and show that the resulting stochastic walks display slowly-decaying autocorrelation functions. The relation between these correlated walks and the well-known fractionally integrated autoregressive (FIGARCH) models, commonly used in econometric studies, is discussed. The application of correlated random walks to simulate empirical financial times series is considered and compared with the predictions from FIGARCH and the simpler FIARCH processes. A comparison with empirical data is performed.Comment: 10 pages, 14 figure

Politics and the resilience of ecosystem services

© Cambridge University Press 2015Decisions around which ecosystem services are the focus for resilience-building initiatives, and ensuring that these choices do not lead to undesirable lock-in effects that compromise the possibility for future adaptation and change, are far from ..

Integrating Cost as a Decision Variable in Wargames

The US military can no longer afford to be reactive, leaving critical cost analyses to the months and years following operations or full-scale conflicts. By leveraging cost in wargaming as part of the Joint planning process, DOD can provide Congress and the American taxpayers a range of potential costs associated with various military engagements that reflect fiscal and operational realities

The Gibbs paradox, Black hole entropy and the thermodynamics of isolated horizons

This letter presents a new, solely thermodynamical argument for considering the states of the quantum isolated horizon of a black hole as distinguishable. We claim that only if the states are distinguishable, the thermodynamic entropy is an extensive quantity and can be well-defined. To show this, we make a comparison with a classical ideal gas system whose statistical description makes only sense if an additional 1/N!-factor is included in the state counting in order to cure the Gibbs paradox. The case of the statistical description of a quantum isolated horizon is elaborated, to make the claim evident.Comment: 8 pages, closest to the published version; taken from the author's diploma thesi